I see a lot people mocking the CDC’s guidance to remain masked and social distanced even after vaccination. Obviously the point of vaccinations is not to have to take those precautionary measures. But what the CDC is probably doing is thinking about this game of imperfect information.
If someone says they are vaccinated, you have no good way of knowing that, so there is a free rider problem.
In game theory, there is a way of visualizing the incentives that guide the players.
This paper: A community-deployable SARS-CoV-2 screening test using raw saliva with 45 minutes sample-to-results turnaround, claims that there is a 45-minute test for COVID-19 that doesn’t use a swab.
From the abstract:
Here, we describe an RT-LAMP test for SARS-CoV-2 in raw saliva that takes about 45 minutes from sample to answer and requires only simple equipment (pipettes and a heating source). The assay has a limit of detection of 100 virions per microliter, and targets two separate regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome.
Since a deadly virus appears to be spreading across the globe, I thought it would be useful to explore how this spread is modeled mathematically, and make some predictions about how quickly this can grow.
The simplest model of disease spreading starts by breaking a population up into compartments:
S (Susceptible) I (Infected) R (Removed️) Then, the model describes the flow between these compartments.
NOTE: This version of the model works over short periods and ignores births and natural deaths.