Calibrated probability estimates for estimating task time

There is a popular idea in software engineering, that is that it is not possible to estimate how long a project will take. Articles like this and this are this argue this compellingly. However, this i

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Bayesian Drunk Driving

Driving drunk is illegal for a good reason, it’s way riskier than driving sober. This article isn’t about driving drunk though, it’s more about the sloppy thought processes that can

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USA FREEDOM Act passes house

About 9 months ago I wrote about NSA bulk spying and how the way the FISA court is being used upsets the balance of powers in the government, the two bills I referenced have a 4% and 2% chance of bein

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Lies Damned Lies and Statistics

There is a quote, usually attributed to Mark Twain that goes something like: “There are three kinds lies. Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.” My interpretation of this is that statistics

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Probability of getting a numerical SHA-1 hash

Git uses the SHA-1 hash function to ensure the integrity of the data it stores. One important property of this function is that if the input is changed very slightly, the output changes completely. Th

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